Gulf Conflict Disrupts Auto Trade, Potential Ripple Effects on Global Markets
Toyota, Hyundai, and Chinese automakers face mounting pressure as the Gulf conflict disrupts critical trade routes. Bernstein analysts highlight these brands as particularly vulnerable, with Toyota controlling 17% of the Middle Eastern market, Hyundai 10%, and Chery 5%. The Strait of Hormuz—a lifeline for 20 million daily oil barrels—now threatens vehicle shipments, potentially adding two weeks to transit times.
Iran's domestic automakers currently dominate local sales, but Chinese exports face disproportionate risk. The Middle East absorbed 17% of China's passenger vehicle exports in 2025, creating vulnerability as shipping lanes constrict. "Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries," warns Bernstein's Eunice Lee.
